What does unemployment have to do with anything? The short answer is: a lot. When people aren’t working, they are not spending money. This results in a spiral effect where there is a further increase in unemployment which leads to a further decrease in consumer spending. If this goes on long enough, and it has already gone on for too long, it can lead to financial hardships for families resulting in credit and mortgage troubles.
The national unemployment rate was roughly in the range of 4% to 6% from 2001 through 2006. (Unemployment data is available from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics.) This was the time of the housing boom (or housing bubble if you will) in the U.S. Then around the second half of 2008, the unemployment rate started to rise as the financial crisis started to take hold. Is it a coincidence that a decline in the housing market was happening around the same time? No, not at all.
By Oct. 2009, the national unemployment rate peaked at over 10%. Since then it has been slowly declining to around 9% and has most recently (Nov. 2011) dropped to 8.6%. During this time, housing prices were still declining and continue to decline. I think that it will take a steady and significant decrease in the unemployment rate, followed by a period of credit and savings rebuilding, before consumer confidence and spending will increase. That’s what will spark an improvement in the housing market (albeit a slow motion spark) where home values are increasing and people will be able to buy the new home they have been wanting for years.
So what’s happening locally? Where the national unemployment rate for Nov. 2011 was 8.6%, The Illinois unemployment rate was 9.4%. Digging down a little further, the unemployment rate for the Chicago-Joliet-Naperville , IL Metropolitan Division was 9.8%. (Not seasonally adjusted unemployment data is available from Illinois Department of Employment Security.) So the numbers for Illinois and the local area are higher than the national average.
Looking at the some of the surrounding counties in the Fox Valley, here are the latest numbers for unemployment in Nov. 2011;
LaSalle County 10.8% (ranked 10 out of 102 in IL)
Cook County 10.3% (ranked 14 out of 102 in IL)
Kane County 9.6% (ranked 26 out of 102 in IL)
Will County 9.6% (ranked 26 out of 102 in IL)
DeKalb County 8.9% (ranked 41 out of 102 in IL)
McHenry County 8.9% (ranked 41 out of 102 in IL)
Kendall County 8.7% (ranked 46 out of 102 in IL)
DuPage County 7.7% (ranked 76 out of 102 in IL)
So who’s ranked #1 in Illinois? Montgomery County with an unemployment rate of 12.4%. (Keep in mind that being ranked #1 on this list is not a good thing.) And who’s at the bottom of the list? Brown County with an unemployment rate of 4.4%.
Let me know what your thoughts are on how unemployment has affected or will affect the real estate market.
Vince Coniglione
Real Estate Professional
Keller Williams Fox Valley Realty
630-391-8764